Be careful of myths you hold dear

Reform UK has won its first Council seat election in Scotland. I’m grateful that it wasn’t here in D&G, though we came pretty close a few weeks ago in the Stranraer & Rhins by-election.

It was bound to happen sooner or later. There has been a general pattern of Reform getting more votes than Labour and the Conservatives in Scottish by-elections in the past year. Given our Proportional Representation system we’ll likely see some Reform MSPs taking their seats in Holyrood next May (2026).

It’s not that Reform don’t have councillors in Scotland already, they have 21 out of 1226, but the remainder were through defections from other parties. They’re probably safe until 2027 if they can keep their willies in their pants and their mouths out the gutter. But electorates don’t take kindly to people playing fast and loose with their votes. Changing party mid-stream doesn’t usually end up well.

The 2027 council elections feel a long way off in terms of how the world can change so I’ll make no predictions there especially as Reform have quite a track record of imploding once in power. This is common among groups that thrive on pointing to problems, but have no experience of delivering solutions.

As a progressive, the rise of Reform fills me with dismay, but I’m realistic about it. Politics will be upended in many cases, but we will get through it to the other side. The question is how long will it take to turn the ship around again?

What nobody is talking about…

• Other parties do just as well as Reform
• Reform have lost seats this year to the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives
• The main parties still hold 90% of (UK) council seats.

OK, so Reform have 21 seats, what’s the big deal? It’s just over 1% and nearly all were defections. The Scottish Greens have 33 and their seats were won through elections. Across the UK Reform have about 940 councillors and Greens/Scottish Greens have about 900. This out of a total of 18,645 (if we exclude Northern Ireland). That puts both parties around 5% in the UK. In other words, the other 90% of seats are held by the “main” parties; SNP, Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat.

While the trend is definitely towards a wider range of parties steadily eroding the majorities of the main parties and occasionally bucking the traditional outcomes of the election outcomes of previous years, it is still a massive hill to climb to get anywhere near a majority.

But surely in this story of shifting sands, coverage of the Greens on both sides of the border should be equivalent to Reform. They’re diametrically opposed to Reform and are making similar gains. Surely that’s a worthwhile story? Of course, it’s all a question of what’s deemed newsworthy and Farage is good value for money in the media circus. Coverage of the Greens in England seems to also centre around their new leader, Polanski. I wonder if they’d have much coverage were it not for him.

And so we’re faced with unjustified levels of media coverage of Reform and let’s face it, Nigel Farage. His Trump-adjacancy has a multiplying factor. Combined with their well funded marketing campaigns - after all, Reform is an attempt at a business take over of government - it creates a sense of momentum that can sway quite a few voters in their direction.

It won’t happen here-ism

Many in Scotland are asleep at the wheel. Three factors could lead to a decent result for Reform in the 2026 Holyrood elections.

1. The belief that “we’re not like that up here” and therefore Reform will be rejected.
2. Our Additional Member System (a form of PR)
3. There are council elections in England on the same day which means Reform will be high on the news agenda in the preceding weeks.

I want to focus on the first reason as it’s the one we can do most about and it’s the most interesting culturally. But let’s clear 2. and 3. first. The AMS voting system means that it’s not a first past the post, knockout victory for one candidate. So while Reform candidates may not be the first choice in a constituency, they (like all parties) get several additional bites at the cherry because you’re also voting on a regional level and 7 regional (List MSPs) representatives will be elected. On point 3. South of Scotland will be impacted more deeply because D&G and The Borders get ITV news coverage from a studio that has to cover English, Scottish and Isle of Man news.

On the most important point, “we’re not like that up here”, I get it, but I think we’re about to find out whether the myth of a kinder society (originating from the articulation of Dùthchas) is a myth or whether it holds up. The rise of individualism has been something that seems to have greatly accelerated this decade. The idea of voting for policies that benefit not only you, but your wider community seems to have been eroded.

I know many people that have moved to Scotland and often comment on how much friendlier people seem and that they feel safer here. There are a whole load of reasons this could be the case, including the excistment of a new start, being jolted out of a status quo from their old home or just a much lower population density. All of these things can lead folk to believe they have a better life compared to where they lived before, but I’m not going to denegrate people that live in cities in other countries en masse. So I’m happy that people feel good about their move to Scotland even if their engine is running on a tank of myth. But we also have to face the fact that we don’t live in a very racially diverse country. While that has been changing recently - especially post-Brexit - feelings towards multi-culturalism have not been stress tested.

Therefore a Reform agenda based on immigration, combined with a long-running incumbent SNP government and a very tangible cost of living crisis will land votes. Data won’t matter. Approximately 70 in 100,000 people in D&G are asylum seekers, and most of the citizens of D&G will never encounter and asylum seeker, let alone experience any consequence of having that person live here. Think about it, how has your life been changed this month by an asylum seeker? How would your life be different if there were no asylum seekers here? If you’re honest most of you reading this will have to admit that it has zero impact on your life. If your bug bear is that it costs money to put them up then go after the companies that charge for the service and deliver next to nothing. If you hear the word “hotel” and think that asylum seekers are odering room service and hangin out in the spa, think again.

Your bills will be just as high if all asylum seekers left today, your wages would be just as low - asylum seekers are not allowed to work and none have taken your job.

Of course, Reform have other policies and when you look at them superficially then you may be convinced. So far they haven’t delivered on their promises on councils so I don’t see how they’ll manage in wider government. They are a professional opposition, disruptors, not canny managers able to steer a ship through a complex world.

• they’re the party of business (according to them) and would lower business rates to 15%
• they’ll also increase the tax threshold to 20K
• they’ll do tax breaks for NHS workers

When you sit and think about that they’re basically saying they’ll take less money from 3 key groups. But a party of business would surely also get rid of or weaken worker protections. What good is a increase in the tax threshold for lower income workers if the minimum wage is scrapped or made optional? Wages would soon be slashed and you’d probably be worse off that before. And special tax breaks for NHS workers? A cycnic might think those are mere sweetners from a group that will dismantle the organisation you work for and sell it off for parts to American private companies.

Failure of the left

Getting more votes isn’t the only way to win seats in an election. Making sure people who don’t vote for you, don’t come out and vote can pay dividends. People are switching to Reform from a variety of parties, but Labour voters aren’t showing up either. The Labour Party’s collapse in Council elections since coming to power is due to their continuation of Conservative policies, their attempts to out-Reform Reform on immigration and their uncharismatic leader in an age of increasing importance put on the front men and women.

Labour Council seats flow to Reform in England and that may well equate to equivalent Labour losses in Scotland. Certainly their council votes have collapsed to a few hundred per by-Election in Scotland this year.

Still here?

If you made it this far and you were a “it won’t happen here” person, thank you. Make sure you and your family and pals are registerd to vote. Get a postal vote in case you’re away or ill on the day of the election. Don’t be complacent, there’s everything to fight for.

References for the data

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_make-up_of_local_councils_in_the_United_Kingdom

http://www.opencouncildata.co.uk/councils.php?model=S&y=0

http://www.opencouncildata.co.uk/elections.php